Story of the Year: The October Surprise

Illustration by Arthur Giron

But don't sound the death knell for the major labels just yet: Besides owning valuable back catalogs, they've assembled an infrastructure that isn't going to disappear overnight, any more than several million people's desire to own a Nickelback album will. This is why Enter Shikari, who successfully self-released in their native U.K., have hooked up with Interscope subsidiary Tiny Evil for their U.S. debut. It's why the Eagles signed with Polydor overseas. Even independently released CDs are frequently at least distributed through a major label or through the Alternative Distribution Alliance, which is owned by Warner Music. And if the majors prove able to offer useful services in the context of these 360 deals, Leshay believes they'll endure, albeit with diminished power. "We've lived in an age when artists worked for record companies," he says. "Now direction is going to be coming from artists and managers for record companies to assist in what's right for the artist."

Arguably, if the industry's 360 model takes hold, the labels would have a greater financial interest in nurturing careers rather than simply working singles. Soulja Boy may sell ringtones in 2007, but he doesn't sell concert tickets or merch like the Rolling Stones or the Police. And come 2009, he may not sell much of anything, whereas career artists can hit the road practically anytime for a big payday. Regardless, the labels will inevitably get smaller as CD sales continue to dwindle and they adjust to a landscape in which they're just one of many options available to artists. "It's a good environment, because artists can make what they want and reach their audience without filters," says Lefsetz, who envisions a future with fewer superstars but many more artists earning a decent income playing music. "What we're going to have is the equivalent of cable TV. There's going to be a lot of niches, and some will break out on a big level."

Fewer multiplatinum behemoths and more midlevel artists selling a few hundred thousand records on their own terms might mean a boom for indie labels, especially big ones such as Merge, Matador, Sub Pop, and Epitaph. It's also likely to mean more music made more accessible at more reasonable prices, if not for free. As for artists themselves, the proliferation of possibilities for recording, financing, promoting, and distributing their music will make it easier than ever to get heard, although possibly harder than ever to stand out.

"Bands ask me advice all the time," says the Shins' Mercer. "The real advice is, 'Don't worry about the stuff you used to. You don't need great connections. You don't need these ancient avenues of distribution. If you have a website, a MySpace page, and YouTube videos, people are going to hear it.' The only advice is to be fucking good. That's the main thing. Just be good."